Expected value calculator

Expected value tells you what a bet is worth on average if you could repeat it forever. It is the core number behind value betting.

The formula

Edge = (probability × decimal odds) − 1. EV = stake × edge. At odds of 2.20 with a true 50% chance, the edge is 10% and a $100 stake is worth +$10 on average — even though any single bet still loses half the time.

The honest catch

The odds are a fact; the probability is your opinion. Every EV figure is only as good as the probability estimate behind it. Value betting software builds those estimates from sharp-market prices — the practical question when comparing tools like the ones in our software hub is whether their estimates are good enough, fast enough, at bookmakers you can actually use. That is what a trial is for: our trial checklist covers how to test it.

EV versus arbitrage

Arbitrage removes the probability estimate entirely by covering every outcome at a guaranteed combined margin — but the margins are small and the account-limit pressure is high. Value betting accepts variance in exchange for bigger average edges. The trade-offs are covered in arbitrage vs value betting, and stake sizing under variance in the staking calculator.